From last May through October,
the country's inflation rate ranged between 7.5 and 9.5 percent. The
underprivileged people are starting to feel the harmful effects of this rising
inflation. Fish and meat must be left from the food list. Since lower middle-class
individuals have just been added to the list of marginalized groups, this
number is rising. The food security index for garment workers focused on export
is declining. This indicates that food consumption among textile workers and
their offspring has decreased.
Based on these findings, the
South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), a private research
organization, claims that the current economy's main concern is the threat to
food security. They placed a strong emphasis on broadening the area of social protection,
increasing agricultural product production, looking for new sources to import
food grains, and keeping an eye on the market in order to resolve this
situation.
According to SANEM, maintaining
food security is essential as we exit the present economic downturn. Preventing
the loss of foreign exchange reserves is also crucial. Otherwise, everyone's
confidence will drop.
In addition, the banking and
revenue sectors should undergo change in the short- and medium-term. The
administration of bank interest rates and the dollar exchange rate needs to
alter. In addition, a high-level committee made up of all parties involved
needs to be constituted. The committee's recommendations may be put into
action.
Salim Raihan, the executive
director of SANEM, made these remarks during a seminar he held on Thursday
called "Bangladesh Economy: Areas of Concern and Actions" on the
online platform. Bajlul Haque Khandkar, the chairman of SANEM, also addressed.
Every month, reserve is
losing $1 billion
The foreign exchange reserve
for the previous fiscal year 2020–21 was $4,640 million (46.4 billion). The
reserve was $4 billion 495 million last January as well. In the 11 months
leading up to November, it decreased to an average of $1 billion (1 billion).
The reserve currently stand at $3 billion 447 million.
According to Salim Raihan,
Bangladesh's reserve situation is not dire. However, if the amount of money
that is being subtracted from the reserve each month is not stopped, there is a
risk. Additionally, he noted that other nations significantly raised their
reserves during the Corona epidemic. They are hence heavily dependent on the
crisis at the moment. We also need to reconsider reserve. Reserve should be
increased until they can cover import obligations for 8 to 10 months.
According to Bajlul Haque
Khandkar, the ongoing loss of reserve must be stopped. Otherwise, everyone's
confidence can drop. There will be widespread discontent if it occurs.
Requisites for stopping
hundi
Due to illicit hundi,
expatriate income cannot be raised. For hundi, there is a problem with both
supply and demand, both domestically and internationally. The dollar exchange
rate needs to be set in order to stop the hundi. Money laundering in the nation
should be eliminated concurrently. Hundi will continue as long as money
laundering is not prevented. According to Salim Raihan, this requires political
will.
Salim Raihan added that in
addition to this, India occasionally changed the exchange rate of its currency
in relation to the dollar. However, Bangladesh has not done it in a very long
time. As a result, a large amount of money must be rapidly discounted. No one
can trust it once more because distinct rates are fixed for import, export, and
expatriate income exchange.
Salim Raihan emphasized the
need for banking sector reform, stating that the absence of effective banking
sector governance is the root cause of a number of economic issues. Willful
defaulters are so strong that they are impossible to manage. Within a week
after taking office, the current finance minister declared that the number of
delinquent loans will not rise. Then, loans in default rose by an additional
30%.
Salim Raihan once observed that
rumors are always rumors, and lately there have been many speculations spreading
regarding the banking industry. It has no basis in reality. The credibility of
more people will rise if reliable information is made available more
frequently. The dissemination of rumors will also dissuade those who do it.
Salim Raihan brought up the
need to restructure the revenue sector in addition to banking. He declared that
Bangladesh's tax to GDP ratio needed to quadruple from its current level. Our
ability to spend more money would have increased. Reforms are the only way to
boost tax collection.
At that time, the Executive
Director of SANEM stated that the IMF's requirements for overhauling the
banking and revenue sectors are nothing new in order to obtain a loan from the
IMF for 4.5 billion dollars. All of the measures will be implemented, the
government has already committed. These reforms have been mentioned in the
Sixth to Eighth Five Year Plan. As a result, without a strong political
commitment, these measures are not feasible.
Is a famine on the horizon?
The entire amount of foreign
debt during the fiscal year 2015–16 was $4,117,000,000. The amount climbed to
$9,015,000,000 in the previous fiscal year. However, there have been certain
modifications made to the design of foreign loans. Short-term debt was 17 percent
in 2015–16; it rose to 21.5 percent in the current fiscal year. However,
private debt to foreign governments is also rising.
Salim Raihan stated that the
repayment of foreign debt is not now an issue after presenting these figures.
The makeup of the foreign debt is altering, though. For exports and foreign
income in the upcoming days, there is no positive news. As a result, the amount
of foreign debt that may be repaid using reserves and current account is
decreasing. In a few years, this will put further strain on the economy.
The highest echelons of
government frequently express their fears about famine. Salim Raihan responded
that there is little chance of starvation in response to a question in this
respect. But repeatedly discussing starvation incites dread. A group may
benefit from that. There won't be a famine, although there might be temporary
food shortages in some places. If such a threat exists, action should be done
beforehand.